On Development: Local challenges become regional

The Fifth by Northwest neighborhood in Columbus is a narrow stretch from King Avenue on the north and Third Street on the south, and from the Olentangy River west to Wyandotte Road in Upper Arlington. 

Its residents live mostly in mid-20th Century row houses and apartments, and in hundreds of new apartments built in the past decade. Its school-age population has dropped in the past 15 years from 602 to 348 – a decline of 42.2 percent. In the same period, the adult population jumped 44.4 percent, from 7,247 to 10,459.

The neighborhoods around the Short North and Weinland Park have experienced similar trends: an 18.7 percent drop in school-age kids and a 33.5 percent increase in the adult population. The patterns are similar but less extreme in other older neighborhoods such as Franklinton, the Near East Side, and the South End.

Combined, those five areas adjacent to the Downtown core have experienced a 21.8 percent drop in children and a 19.2 increase in adults between 2010 and 2025.

Meanwhile, Eastland, Hilltop, Greater Linden, and Northland, have seen 8,769 more kids (a 20.2 percent increase) and 20,277 more adults (a 16.6 percent increase).

Michael Wilkos, vice president for community engagement at United Way of Central Ohio, gathered these and other data and has shared them with Columbus City Schools leaders, city officials, civic organizations, business leaders, and others. 

What does all this mean? After all, even with the decline in kids in inner neighborhoods, the school district enrollment could see a net increase of 4,998 students. And the increase of adults investing in once-struggling, now in-demand older neighborhoods can boost the tax base in those areas. 

On the other hand, many young couples are waiting longer before having kids; others are opting against starting a family altogether. Does that mean schools in older neighborhoods will be forced to close as enrollment drops? Will new schools be needed if school-age populations keep growing in outlying areas?

We don’t have answers to these questions, but it’s valuable to see the trends and to be prepared if the trends continue. Nor are these figures limited to what’s happening only within the city of Columbus and the Columbus school district.

Wilkos has additional data. The number of children under 18 is growing faster in Franklin County census tracts outside of the Columbus school district boundaries. The school-age population grew by 20.2 percent within the city school district but grew by a cumulative 25 percent in Franklin County districts beyond Columbus. Some of that includes households that are within the city of Columbus but in suburban school districts – a result of the 1986 “win-win” compromise on schools and Columbus annexation. 

The data shows that cost-burdened households – those that spend more than 30 percent of household income on housing – are most common in win-win areas around the I-270 outerbelt. This suggests that many people are willing to pay more for housing in order to place their kids in suburban schools. 

Clearly, city and suburban growth are intertwined with the perceptions and realities of the region’s school systems.

Unfortunately, City Hall and Columbus City Schools have for a long time appeared indifferent toward each other. A dozen or so years ago, then-Mayor Michael Coleman said, “A great city deserves great schools,” and that Columbus schools have “failed us” – as if struggling and neglected city neighborhoods have no impact on kids in a classroom.

“A city can’t be healthy without a healthy population base,” wrote Alex Marshall in his 2000 book How Cities Work. “Child-filled schools are a sign of this.”

Dealing with these issues is an even greater challenge in a state where political leaders are openly hostile toward public education.

Fortunately, the city and school district have come to recognize their challenges. City Council and the school board created a joint leadership committee in April and held an inaugural gathering July 15 at Northland High School. At its second meeting, in September, it already began discussion of new schools in growing areas and school closures where enrollment is dropping.

In the long run, Central Ohio will need more than city and school collaboration. The data on growth patterns raises the question of how a region should be governed. As it is, Franklin County alone has 17 townships and 20 suburbs. What’s more, the region is inextricably linked to various townships and municipalities in six adjacent counties. The boundaries between all of those entities are often arbitrary – and largely irrelevant to the drivers of the regional economy.

The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission is the right forum for these challenges, but it has no real authority. 

In his book, Marshall notes that, historically, regional economies were focused on large cities; suburbs were mere adjuncts. But today, local economies spread across many counties, and the demographic challenges reach across the counties.

“Our true cities,” he writes, “are our metropolitan areas.” 

Brian Williams is a semi-retired reporter and planner